News 2005

THERE is growing perception and reasons to boot that Kalenjin leaders on the Banana camp are having a mountain to climb from what is happening on the ground. They say perceptions can be deceptive but then again its is often perceptions which tend to crystallize into realities more so in the province of politics.

Take the case of Community minister John Koech who is putting on a brave face crusading for Yes. Like any other political animal, Koech plays fidelity to his own statistics according to which the banana lot are doing just fine in the Rift Valley. Forget the reality on the ground that the minister has on several occasions been humiliated even at his own doorsteps as he roots for Yes. One has to admire his tenacity for such encounters have not eroded his determination to fight on.

The stakes are very high. Rift Valley has over 2.4million votes and the side making considerable in roads in the province could very well run away with victory come November 21st. Koech detests the tag of pariah regarding his unflinching stand with the Wako Draft but those with their ear close to the ground are skeptical.

The Orange push in Kalenjin dominated area currently appear difficult to restrain and barring some disaster in their campaign strategy, it is difficult to see how efforts by the likes of Koech could prevail and indeed give credence to pronouncement by pundits that Yes crusaders may have written their political obituaries. When activist Juma Kiplenge too it upon himself to give an ultimatum to the Kalenjin ministers in the cabinet to quit before 21st November or face doom, he may have been playing he hyper role he is known for but his views find easy resonance on the ground.

Take Kipkalia Kones an assistant minister who in 2002 was reduced to political debris when he chose Nyachae’s Ford People. He was hesitant initially but since the mans political fortune and allegiance are currently tied to the fortunes of Nyachae he wavered then finally decided Yes. Like Koech, he is bound to be hard pressed to make in roads with his electorate the 12,000 title deeds handed over to the Ogiek and fellow Kipsigis notwithstanding.

Problem is Kalenjin leaders in the Yes group are seen as traitors, opportunists and mercenaries. When the over 10,000 Kalenjin families in Mau were evicted from their farms, including those with genuine title deeds the leaders in Yes group were caught between a rock and a hard place. From the perspective of political correctness, there was not much they could do yet to their people, considerably more in terms of fighting their cause was expected. It may have come too late the decision to return the evictees. So the twin issues of mandate and moral authority have swept past them by.

Not surprisingly, Immigration minister Jebii Kilimo “saw the light” and decided that swimming against the current would be needlessly too draining and with results seemingly staked against her own wish, she opted to let her constituents lead her. Forget the debate which then erupted whether she should lead or be led but dictates of political survival forced her to introspect and move accordingly.

Those who differ with the Yes in government like Kalonzo Musyoka, Balala, Ntimama, Raila and Ayacko are perceived to know one thing: power is with the people. And which is why when they evaluate the prospects of former powerman Nicholas Biwott, they are left lost for words because in politics one claim to opt for middle ground when it comes to such fundamental issue like the constitution. Biwott may be a well entrenched political operator but there are many who are today predicting his Waterloo come 2007. Unfortunately for him, splitting up Kanu has not gone down well with a community who provide the bedrock of support for the party. Going to the dust bins of history may not be his fate yet but pundits see a much diminished powerman in the future.

Would be Banana heavy weight in the region Agriculture minister Kirwa has at best been lukewarm that is until he was smoked out during the centenary of Orkoiyot Koitalel Samoe. The humiliation he was subjected to made its own statement. But Kirwa can be expected to fight back. What is not clear is whether the fightback will change the writings on the wall. In what most explicitly explains the bile level, he was probably the last of Kalenjin leaders who people expected would be booed off the podium in the presence of President Kibaki.

But why are people rejecting these leaders? In the Wako Draft the idea of regionally viable governments were removed and reduced to powerless district assemblies which are no better than the current county councils.

The people see county councils as dead and powerless entities. The people of Rift Valley did not ask this kind of set up. The reason why some Kenyans have literally burned the Wako Document is because they are disappointed by the content in it. It is rightly a government document as stated by Kiraitu Murungi. One argument frequently visited is: Wako Draft is better than the current one. This is not washing with many communities who see efforts to perpetuate centralized power at the expense of the periphery.

Nairobi can not continue to be the heart beat of everything. This is only working to perpetuate inequality and inequity. The proposed new constitution is neither going to spur the economy nor the democracy. And with so much power heaped on the centre, it is yet another form of dictatorship and whimsical disbursement of national largesse. Clearly Kalenjins are not seeing it that way and which is why the pundits say their leaders who are saying Yes may have written their political obituaries.

http://www.timesnews.co.ke/24oct05/nwsstory/opinion1.html

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