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Foreign missions in dilemma over
crisis
Story by JEFF OTIENO
16. 02. 2008
Kenya’s political crisis has put a number of foreign missions in a
dilemma.
Some think there will be a negotiated settlement to the problem
while others see a possible worsening of the situation, should the
ongoing peace efforts fail.
Impeccable sources in diplomatic circles said the envoys and
development partners including the World Bank have been meeting to
chart the way forward if the problem takes long to resolve.
Britain, Kenya’s former colonial master, and the US are some of
the countries expressing optimism that the talks will be fruitful
and have made it clear that the country is too important to be
left to go the Somalia way.
Strategic importance
Indeed, the announced visit by the United State’s foremost
diplomat, Ms Condoleeza Rice, on Monday reinforces the strategic
importance that the world’s leading countries attach to Kenya.
A statement sent to newsrooms from the Nairobi embassy yesterday
said Ms Rice is coming to voice US support for ongoing
negotiations led by former UN secretary general Kofi Annan.
Our sources said some foreign embassies and multi-national
organisations have prepared evacuation plans and booked hotels for
their staff in the neighbouring Uganda and Tanzania in case the
country explodes for the second time.
The head of the political section at the Japanese embassy, Mr
Yasushi Naito, yesterday warned that it will be a tragedy if a
second wave of violence hits Kenya.
“We cannot afford to let Kenya to be another failed state. That
should not be an option, however it seems that getting a solution
to the political questions might take time,” said Mr Yasushi. He
added that implementation plans for projects financed by the
Japanese government amounting to more than $500 million had been
affected by the chaos.
“Implementation schedules have been interfered with and many have
failed to proceed as planned because of violence and uncertainty,”
the official said.
The sources noted that some of the diplomats participating in the
briefing meetings feel that Americans and the British had a
“secret plan” but didn’t know exactly what it involves.
They say pressure by the British High Commissioner Adam Wood and
America’s Michael Ranneberger on the Government suggests that they
might be courting a plan B which did not rule out anything.
They also refer to a statement by the US Assistant Secretary of
State for African Affairs, Dr Jendayi Frazer, who warned that a
solution from outside could be imposed on Kenya if it does not
solve its own problems.“We’ll find an international mechanism if
they can’t find it internally,” she said ahead of an African Union
meeting held early in the month.
However, US embassy spokesman T.J Dowling denied that the American
had a plan B but quickly added that if the two camps fail to reach
an agreement, the UN and African Union will intervene.
“The US has no plan B and an intervention plan will certainly not
come from us. However, the UN and the AU will intervene if major
problems occur, but that is a long shot,” Mr Dowling added.
The US official said Kenya is too important a nation and has had a
long standing relationship with the US, adding that the superpower
wants it to be a leading model for economic growth and democracy
in Africa.
An official at the British embassy said Britain has made it clear
that anyone who derails the mediation talks will face the
consequences.
“We are, however, optimistic that Mr Annan’s effort will find the
required political solution,” said the official who did not want
to be named.
The US embassy said Ms Rice’s trip will underscore the country’s
commitment to assisting both sides agree on a common way forward
that will bring peace and stability to Kenya, and help the country
regain its position as a democratic and economic leader in the
region.
She will hold a press conference at the US ambassador’s residence
on Monday afternoon, after meeting President Kibaki, ODM’s Raila
Odinga and members of the civil society.
Speaking in the US ahead of his African tour, President Bush said
he was dispatching Ms Rice, to state America’s position that
violence must end and the country returns to democracy.
The European Union has also warned they will take stern action on
those keen to subvert the mediation talks.
France and Switzerland have also issued warnings to hardliners.
“Those who frustrate the talks will be punished and sanctions is
one of the options that might be taken,” says the French
Ambassador Elisabeth Barbier. Swiss counsellor Arthur Mattli also
made similar threats.
The diplomats, sources say, were impressed by ODM’s recent
moderate stance, which they argued had helped improve its image as
a group ready for compromise. However, there were still concerns
about some hardliners in the Kibaki camp.
Imported goods
It is also believed that Rwanda President Paul Kagame’s comment
that the army should intervene to stop the killings and
humanitarian crisis, was made after consultations with the some
western countries.
Though calm has returned in some of the country’s hotspots, there
is still anxiety in Uganda, Rwanda, southern Sudan who are also
pegging their hopes on the mediation team, for an uninterrupted
supply of imported goods which pass through Kenya.
In the early days of the crisis, it was learned that Ugandan
President Yoweri Museveni called a meeting– as chairman of the EAC–
to discuss the violence.
However, President Kibaki cancelled his trip in the last minute
and insisted that his colleagues could not meet to discuss Kenya
without him.
It is also understood that Mr Museveni was supposed to return to
Kenya last Friday but failed to show up due to unknown reasons.
It was argued that Western allies might have advised him against
visiting the country.
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