|
A Political Compromise in Kenya?
Friday, Feb. 08, 2008
By NICK WADHAMS/NAIROBI
Kenyan President Mwai Kibai (left), former U.N. Secretary
General Kofi Annan (center), and opposition leader Raila Odinga
(right) pose prior to a meeting at Harambee house in Nairobi,
Kenya, Friday, Feb. 8, 2008. (Presidential Press Service / AP)
Former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced Friday that
Kenya's government and the opposition are close to reaching a
power-sharing deal to resolve the political deadlock that sparked
weeks of bloodshed. But after the chaos in which more than 1,000
people were killed and 300,000 have been displaced, it remains
open to question whether a deal among politicians will be enough
to restore the peace.
Annan, who has been mediating between the political rivals for
more than a week, provided no details, but urged patience from
those who have become increasingly pessimistic about Kenya's fate
since the violence touched off by the disputed December 27 poll.
While both sides showed some flexibility, it remains unclear how
the deal brokered by Annan will address the central crux of the
disagreement: President Mwai Kibaki says he rightfully won
re-election in the December 27 vote, while Orange Democratic
Movement leader Raila Odinga claims the vote was stolen from him.
"I think everyone realizes that we have a serious problem in the
country," Annan said. "We also accept that we have to find a way
of uniting and reconciling the nation."
The post-election chaos has effectively redrawn Kenya's
demographic map, as tens of thousands of President Kibaki's fellow
ethnic Kikuyus were forced to flee the fertile Rift Valley and
further west including the city of Kisumu, which has, according to
local accounts, come to govern itself entirely.
In retaliation, Kikuyus in other communities have driven out
members of the Luo, Luhya and Kalenjin tribes, deemed to support
Odinga, and these tensions continue to escalate. The United States
has backtracked from U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa
Jendayi Frazer's characterization of the violence as "ethnic
cleansing," but many Kenyans agreed with her.
Analysts say that the proposal on the table is one familiar in
Kenyan political circles: amend the constitution to run more along
the lines of a parliamentary democracy, with the president ceding
many of his powers to the person who occupies the newly created
post of prime minister. That would strip Kibaki of most of the
awesome control he has over the state and make parliament more
than just a talking shop. An attempt in 2005 to change the
constitution failed, but observers believe the recent crisis may
finally be concentrating the minds of Kenya's politicians.
"Kenya will have to accept that the constitution is not cast in
stone, it was written by men, it can be changed by men and the
radical situation we are in now requires very exceptional steps to
hold the country together," says political analyst Ojwang Agina.
Constitutional change may be the only way out of the deadlock. The
opposition has repeatedly called for a new vote, but it's
difficult to see how that could occur now that so many tens of
thousands of people have fled the towns where they once voted. A
power-sharing deal is another option, but that might only work as
a stop-gap measure to pave the way for more fundamental
constitutional changes.
Annan's announcement may be a sign that pressure on the main
parties to compromise after weeks of intransigence may finally be
beginning to tell. On Friday, President Kibaki's government lifted
a ban on public rallies that had been decried as unconstitutional.
He has also backed off the rather peremptory argument he had made
at an African Union summit in Ethiopia: that the opposition should
seek redress from Kenya's judicial system, which happens to be
firmly in the president's pocket.
And Odinga has shown at least a modicum of flexibility too,
perhaps realizing that it may no longer be sufficient to insist
that the presidency was stolen — which many observers say it very
well may have been — and accept that Kibaki, whether elected
legitimately or not, is still the president of the country, with
all its resources behind him.
"We are saying that we are willing to give and take," Odinga told
reporters Friday. "Initially our stand was that we won the
elections, and Mr. Kibaki lost the elections, he should resign,
and we should be sworn in, but we have said that we are not static
on that point."
|
