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Population pressure at the
centre of crisis in Rift Valley
Thge Nation
Story by SAMUEL SIRINGI and BARNABAS BII
9. 02. 2008
Demographers have added a dimension to the current post-election
violence — population increase, especially in agriculturally rich
Rift Valley province.
A rising population, unmatched by the availability of jobs couple
with shrinking land, means that the large number of youths can
only look to revolutionising land ownership systems to survive.
The experts explain that the arable land in the region has been
coveted by many people, leading to its cosmopolitan nature.
Most of the residents rely on growing cash and food crops — to an
extent that the North Rift region is termed the country’s grain
basket owing to its large-scale maize production.
The province provides a large share of Kenya’s 20 per cent of land
that has the potential for agriculture, which explains the
migration of people into the area to carry out farming.
Generally, about 80 per cent of the country’s estimated 33 million
people rely on the 20 per cent of arable land, a great percentage
of which is in the Rift Valley region.
With a large youth population, 50 per cent of them aged below 15,
the country is faced with a large dependency burden.
“It means that the demand for land for the youth is high, and this
explains why they are stopping at nothing to own land,” says Mr
Moses Ouma, a demographer at the Office of the President.
He adds: “We consistently put more emphasis on fighting the
HIV/Aids scourge and forgot to lay more emphasis on the rising
population in the country, which is now threatening to tear apart
our peaceful co-existence.”
Population experts are worried by the fact that the fertility
rates have been increasing slightly over the years.
Although a Kenyan woman preferred to have an average of 4.7
children between 1995 and 1998, the figure had risen to 4.8 in
2003, raising the concern that the population could continue to be
on an upward trend.
Yet, generally, the local population is characterised by a high
death rate, low and declining life expectancy and high infant
mortality rates, according to government records.
According to population specialist Japheth Makonoo of the ministry
of Health, urgent measures have to be taken to ensure the growing
population is offered security in terms of land and jobs.
“What we have just experienced in the Rift Valley should be an
eye-opener. We need to put in place measures that would pre-empt
such clashes in future,” he says.
In the Rift Valley, the fertile land has attracted the interest of
most farming communities, among them the Kikuyu and the Gusii, and
many of whom have permanently settled there.
This is why it was possible for the immigrants to acquire large
chunks of land, occupy them and even give them their cultural
names.
Such areas include Kiambaa in Uasin Gishu and Geta in Trans-Nzoia.
But now, threatened by the increasing population, some indigenous
residents wish to reverse the trend, and are determined to keep
the immigrant communities away.
Saturday Nation investigations show that although the post-poll
violence was triggered by the disputed presidential election
results, it provided a good opportunity for the residents to
correct what they term land anomalies.
Many youths who are unemployed in a region, that ironically is
also ravaged by poverty, resort to violence to keep the
“interlopers” away.
The rapid population growth, especially around Eldoret town, is a
major contributor too the current clashes.
Much of the population not indigenous, and this is making the
original residents uncomfortable, says Moi university lecturer
Nathan Ogechi.
According to Dr Ogechi, conservative estimates show that the
Eldoret population has increased from about 50,000 a decade ago to
more than 200,000 currently.
The don explains that the region is experiencing phenomenal social
and economic growth due to the advent of institutions such as Moi
University and Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital.
The existence of a modern airport that business people can use to
fly to and from Nairobi has also enhanced rich people’s appetite
for the area.
The region has high potential for the dairy industry as well as
maize, wheat and mango farming.
But these activities have now been thrown into jeopardy, with
preparations of land ahead of next month’s planting season delayed.
The dairy farmers can no longer smoothly deliver milk to New Kenya
Cooperative Creameries, while several tonnes of mangoes are going
to waste at the Kerio Valley due to lack of access to markets.
Kenya Dairy Board chairman Reuben Chesire says the violence has
interrupted the breeding programme for dairy animals, and that
this could result in a long-term decline of milk production.
He adds that the chaos has impacted negatively on dairy production
by interrupting the breeding of animals, while milk production has
declined by 30 per cent.
Apart from upsetting the breeding programme, the violence has
interrupted the production of animal fodder, resulting in a
decline in milk production, he adds.
Milk deliveries to the Eldoret depot of New Kenya Cooperative
Creameries have declined from 25,000 litres to 11,000 litres daily.
Mr Chesire says the situation has also interrupted the servicing
of loans given to farmers by the cooperative.
Most farmers will default on servicing the loans or have their
repayment policies adjusted, as they have been unable to deliver
milk due to the insecurity.
Maize and wheat farmers also express concerns over increasing fuel
prices and the high cost of farm inputs as the season’s planting
programme approaches.
Almost all parts of the province, including Nakuru, the
headquarters, have experienced the violence.
Revenue generation
Revenue generation from tea, coffee, tourism and horticulture has
been adversely affected. Now the violence threatens the country’s
food security due to a possible decline in maize and wheat output
this season.
Nakuru and Naivasha towns which have played host to thousands of
people fleeing violence in the western Kenya region are
experiencing the effects of the violence.
Tourism in Nakuru and parts of Baringo is recording reduced
bookings after visitors cancelled their travels. Some hotels have
been forced to lay off staff due to poor business following the
month long turmoil.
The once flourishing tourism activities at the Lake Nakuru
national park and the Lake Bogoria game reserve has recorded a
decline in the number of visitors, which has affected revenue
generation and the national economy.
Kenya Wildlife Service early last month said that Lake Nakuru,
which is famous for flamingoes, is now registering only 5,513
tourists a month, compared to 11,682 in the same period last year.
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