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Kenya: The perfect storm
The Times
By Richard Dowden
1st January 2008
Shocked by pictures of death and mayhem on the streets of Kenyan
towns, a Kenyan friend in Britain called me to express her shock.
“But these things don’t happen in Kenya!” she exclaimed, as if
Kenya – or Keenya as she pronounced it – was immune from the
political ills that have plagued Africa in the last 50 years.
She is wrong. Kenya has been a catastrophe waiting to happen.
Every election since multi party politics was reintroduced in 1991
has involved rigging. So far the margin of victory has always been
so great that Western diplomats – keen to maintain “stability” –
could claim that the cheating did not make a difference to the
result. “Voting broadly reflected the will of the people” was
their duplicitous phrase, allowing the ruling elite to play their
quinquennial charade. Now the margin of victory is too thin. The
cheating did make a difference and Raila Odinga, the leader of the
main opposition party which has won in six out of eight provinces
the largest number of parliamentary seats, is not going to concede
defeat.
Kenya is not just another African country. Suffering only one –
failed – coup attempt in 45 years of independence, its stability
makes Nairobi, the capital, the base for transnational
corporations, the United Nations and scores of NGOs for east and
central Africa. It is also a beautiful country with well-run game
parks for tourists, mountains, lakes and gorgeous Indian Ocean
beaches. Unlike many African countries, Kenya’s strong
professional class has never fled, driving economic growth at
around 5% in the last four years. Kenyans are lucky. The country
has no single natural resource like oil to enrich the elite and
impoverish everyone else. Kenyans have to work for their money and
recently they have done well.
Yet in 2005 a poll found that more than half Kenyans thought the
economy was doing badly. According to Afrobarometer, a
continent-wide research project, the most important issue for most
Kenyans was equality, both of opportunity and availability of
resources. That was an indirect way of saying that the Kikuyu, the
ethnic group of President Mwai Kibaki and Kenya’s largest, was
getting everything to the exclusion of everyone else.
Kibaki came in on an anti corruption ticket but approval of the
government’s anti corruption programme fell in his first three
years from 85% to 40%. The reason was simple. Intense internal and
international pressure forced Kibaki to appoint John Githongo, a
former journalist and corruption campaigner, as anti corruption
Czar. He also commissioned a public inquiry into the Goldenberg
scam, through which some $600 million was stolen from the treasury
in the 1990s. Thousands of Kenyans attended the hearings, sitting
quietly but bug-eyed as they heard an extraordinary tale of theft
and deceit. Meanwhile Githongo commissioned Kroll, a private
security firm, to trace, freeze and return the money lodged
outside Kenya.
Kroll reported that much of the money was in accounts owned by
sons of President Moi but once these details became available to
senior figures in Kibaki’s government, the second and third stages
of the process, freezing and recovery, were abandoned. A deal was
done. Shortly afterwards Githongo fled for his life and, even in a
British haven, was given an armed bodyguard. With good reason. The
Kenyan elite have a history of killing people who ask questions
about corruption. Kibaki’s gang had simply continued the Kenyan
tradition of corruption beginning with a slice of the previous
loot.
Kenyan politics are more than a lucrative game of musical chairs
for the elite. Voting is driven by ethnic competition whipped up
by Kenya’s politicians who often address their own people in coded
language. “It is our turn to eat!” is a phrase you often hear. It
means that it is the turn of our ethnic group to rule – and loot
as much as we can. In 2002 Odinga helped put Kibaki in power,
delivering his Luo ethnic group to the Rainbow Alliance. The
agreement – in writing – was that Kibaki would change the
constitution, create a powerful post of prime minister and appoint
Odinga. Once in power Kibaki changed his mind. He presented a new
constitution, retaining a powerful presidency. Odinga, given the
minor transport ministry, left the government in disgust. A
brilliant orator and campaigner, he whipped up opposition to
Kibaki’s new constitution and defeated it in a referendum. The
voting figures showed just how ethnically divided the country had
become. The Kikuyu voted for it. Most of the rest against.
Riding the wave – and Kibaki’s growing unpopularity, Odinga forged
the Orange coalition that brought together four other leading
politicians and their communities. Only the Kikuyu were missing.
They were certain of victory. Now aged 62, Raila Odinga – Raila
means stinging nettle - has been in opposition politics most of
his life. He is not a man to throw in the towel. The gang around
Kibaki have too much to lose if Odinga comes to power. The scene
is set for all out war between the Kikuyu and the rest, a war that
kicked off on Sunday afternoon as Luo and Kikuyu attacked each
other in Nairobi and elsewhere.
Are Kenya’s institutions strong enough to withstand a near civil
war? The police will do the President’s bidding but there are
doubts about the army, one of the most professional in Africa.
Many senior officers are reported to be unhappy about shooting
demonstrators on behalf of a politician who may not be around for
long.
With South Africa’s leadership in turmoil and Nigeria suffering
from a failed election earlier this year it is hard to see who in
Africa has the authority to bring both sides together. America has
accepted the result, European election observers said the process
was not convincing. Without concerted international diplomatic
intervention, Kenyans may be left to fight it out.
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