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The US or other outsiders will
not save Kenyan democracy
Story by JEFFREY D. SACHS
Publication Date: 1/28/2008
Kenya is aflame after a disputed presidential election on December
27 .
Hundreds have died at the hands of the police as well as from gang
rampages and inter-ethnic violence. The US has led the
international diplomatic response, but its approach has been
deeply flawed.
Kenyans voted in vast numbers, waiting in the hot sun for several
hours at crowded polling booths. The first results to be counted
were for Kenya’s parliament, with Cabinet ministers roundly
defeated in their constituencies. The main opposition, led by Mr
Raila Odinga, won more seats. It appeared overwhelmingly likely
that the presidential vote count would similarly show Mr Odinga
beating President Kibaki by a wide margin.
THAT, INDEED, IS HOW THE EARLY count transpired. As the tallies
from polling stations came into Nairobi, Mr Odinga built up a lead
of several hundred thousand votes. Then the trouble began. Vote
tallies from Mr Kibaki’s homeland in central Kenya were delayed.
Independent observers from the European Union and elsewhere began
to report serious irregularities.
Matters became even more dubious as the vote tallies were
collected and recorded at the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK).
According to detailed evidence submitted by the opposition, the
tallies from the countryside, allegedly already padded for Mr
Kibaki, were again manipulated, with additional votes awarded to
him. As a result, many more votes were recorded by the ECK for the
presidential race than for the parliamentary race, even though
voters were clearly instructed – indeed required – to cast a vote
in both races.
When the opposition tried to challenge these inconsistencies, the
ECK abruptly declared Kibaki the winner. Days later, the ECK’s
head publicly acknowledged that Kibaki supporters had pressured
him to announce the results, despite the protests. Shockingly, he
declared that he did not know who really won.
The election is a disaster for Kenya, but the response of the
international community, led by the US, is no less distressing.
American foreign policy in Africa is in the hands of Assistant
Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer, a former student of Secretary
of State Condeleezza Rice. From the start of the post-election
crisis, Ms Frazer took three flawed positions.
First, she declared that the vote could not be re-assessed by an
independent tally. In fact, most observers believed that there was
a long paper trail, from the polling sites all the way to Nairobi,
which could be re-assessed in detail.
Second, she claimed that there had been vote rigging “on both
sides,” and suggested that the true election results were very
close and that perhaps Mr Kibaki had won. Given the vast amount of
direct and circumstantial evidence that the rigging was on behalf
of Mr Kibaki, Ms Frazer’s assignment of equal blame to each side
was met with astonishment and dismay by the opposition. She also
failed to acknowledge an exit poll carried out by a US foundation,
which showed a clear Odinga victory.
Finally, Ms Frazer argued that the two sides needed to compromise
and share power. Instead, Mr Kibaki disdainfully appointed 18 key
Cabinet members even as “mediation” was about to begin. The
opposition, of course, was perplexed by the US call for compromise
without any serious call to review the vote itself.
IN THE END, ONLY KENYA WILL DECIDE its own fate. The US or other
outside powers will not save Kenyan democracy. Threats, sanctions,
or aid cutoffs would only cause further damage to an economy
already in free fall, tragically punishing Kenya’s poor while
fomenting further violence.
Still, the international community can play a more constructive
role than it has until now by pressing both sides to accept an
independent recount. By standing up for democratic principles, the
world would truly stand on the side of the Kenyan people. Ms
Frazer told Kenyans that they shouldn’t expect their vote to be
tallied accurately, and that power can be seized or perhaps even
negotiated in a backroom.
Perhaps, a recount would show that the election was too close to
call. Perhaps, as the opposition insists, it would demonstrate a
clear victory for Mr Odinga. Either way, Kenyans and their votes
would be taken seriously, and tempers could well subside. Only if
both sides accept that there was no clear winner is it reasonable
to call for power-sharing (or a new election).
There is still time to get this right.
Jeffrey Sachs is Professor of Economics and Director of the
Earth Institute at Columbia University.
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