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What lies ahead for Kibaki
Presidency?
Published on January 20, 2008, 12:00 am
By Sunday Standard Team
What was billed to be the closest fought and thrilling election
not only exploded into violence over disputed results, but also is
redefining the country’s geo-political map. The bitterly fought
contest, subsequent dispute over declared results and finally
violence, has also upset the country’s inter-ethnic relations and
traditional political alliances.
With the transformation of inter-ethnic relations, and the
hardened positions adopted by Party of National Unity and the
Orange Democratic Movement, another picture is also building up.
History is repeating itself in the furious political battles
between President Kibaki and ODM leader Mr Raila Odinga.
It rekindles the plummeting relations between the founding Father
Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and one of his one-time staunch supporters and
first Vice-President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga in mid-1960s. Though
the falling out did not result in fighting, it broke up the
pre-Independence political alliance between Kenya’s largest two
communities – the Kikuyu and Luo – from which the two come.
The Kibaki-Raila contest may not only widen the fissure between
the two communities. Also along with it, the communities that
supported each. It is this fissure that is the worry of the
international mediators given the recent attack on a community
perceived to have its presence beyond its traditional foothold.
The biggest worry would be the emergence of Kenya’s version of
Nigeria’s South and North.
Besides the implication on the political careers of Kibaki and
Raila, the mediators will also be pondering not just on the danger
of economic shutdown, the toll on the social fabric and danger of
anarchy, but the future of Kenya. With two forces falling apart,
focus will be on making both sides weigh what they have to lose,
no matter what they make of their victory or defeat, if the
polarisation intensifies.
Kibaki’s big task
But with President Kibaki’s team insisting it won fairly, and
Raila’s side’s demand for transitional government and finally a
re-run of presidential election, the task could be arduous.
But of immediate concern will be first, restoring peace, and
putting a plan that would save the country from further slide to
the precipice through inter-ethnic violence, and stemming
isolation mainly by the 27 European Union States and the US.
Already, the EU Parliament has recommended to its members to stop
aid to Kenya, until the political impasse’ is resolved.
But in the long term the eye will be on the hurdles President
Kibaki may have to grapple with, particularly if the legitimacy of
his government is challenged in Parliament where PNU does not have
the comfort of numerical supremacy.
With credibility problems locally and abroad, the Government has a
battle on its hands. Internationally, more members of the
Government may have their visas cancelled, particularly if the EU
maintains its stand that the elections fell below international
and regional standards.
At home, the President is grappling with an uphill battle in a
Parliament tilted against him and a nation divided in two unequal
parts and upset by the scandal of the December 27 General Election.
"Because there are many who believe he was not elected and because
of the bitterness after the election, the President may never
really have the authority to do what he wanted," a political
activist, who consults with the Opposition, says.
"He will be restrained by the situation he walked into," he adds.
In British House of Commons, Mr Edward Davey, a Liberal Democrat
MP for Kingston and Surbiton rose to "thank the Government in
their various public statements for not referring to "Mr Mwai
Kibaki as the President".
He then asked, "Will the Foreign Secretary confirm that the
Government still do not recognise Mr Kibaki as having been
re-elected president? Did the Foreign Secretary share my concern
when the US State Department, in the first crucial hours after the
poll, rushed to accept the flawed election result? Has he raised
the serious consequences of that critical error of judgement with
the US Secretary of State?"
In response, Mr David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary state: "I
can confirm that we have recognised no new Government in Kenya. In
respect of the United States’ position, I spoke to the Secretary
of State on December 30, or possibly 31."
He added: "She made it absolutely clear to me that although the
United States was happy to congratulate the Kenyan people on the
way they had participated in the democratic process, it had issued
no congratulation to an individual "winner"; that her concerns
about the irregularities identified by the EU are serious and
real; and that she shares our commitment to the spirit of
compromise to which we referred in our joint statement and,
critically, to the sharing of power."
Mr Miliband warned of the risks of Kenya forfeiting international
support if they fail to strike a compromise.
Germany wants EU aid suspended if the Government rejects
international mediation. The United States has warned that the US
would find it impossible to conduct "business as usual" in the
present circumstances.
Locally and abroad, a build-up is taking shape that point to
possibility of Kenya returning to the turbulent days of late
1970s, through the 1980s all the way to the 1990s if the current
political crisis is not resolved.
A political solution appears remote. Raila insists that the
presidential poll was rigged and international observers have
described the vote count as "obviously flawed" and "plagued by
irregularity".
Recently, the President named a half of his Cabinet before the
arrival of African Union chairman and Ghanaian President, Mr John
Kufuor. Before President Kibaki named the Cabinet, Raila’s team
put off planned demonstrations to give international mediation a
chance.
At that time, Kufuor, who later handed over the mantle to former
UN secretary general, who is expected around on Tuesday, flew in
to try to bring Raila and Kibaki to the negotiating table. He did
not succeed.
President Kibaki responded to Raila’s gesture by appointing 17
Cabinet ministers in what was interpreted as a slap in the face of
foreign diplomats, who had pleaded with the President and Raila
not to make any appointments or moves until the business of
mediation had run its course.
With massive destruction and death, and a political solution not
in sight, there are grim predictions that the country could be
headed for harsh times economically and politically.
There are predictions that the economic ramifications of the
disputed and discredited presidential elections could prove
substantial.
The World Bank’s January forecast puts the GDP growth at 5.3 per
cent this year, down from 6.3 per cent, last year.
The bank predicts the economy will slow further to 5.1 per cent,
next year.
The Economist, in its latest Intelligence Unit forecast, says
these figures are likely to be downgraded substantially to reflect
the damage and disruption of the election period, poor rains and
decline in tourism.
The Kenya Tourist Board projects that it will take about six
months for the tourism industry to recover even if there is a
quick resolution of the impasse.
KTB says that it took the industry five years to recover from the
Likoni land clashes of 1997; the Nairobi terrorist bombing blamed
on al-Qaida a year later, and another bomb blast at the Coast’s
Paradise Hotel in 2002.
Donors are under pressure to cut financial assistance. But the US
has assured it does not plan to cut aid, despite plans by other
partners to do so.
State Department spokesman, Mr Sean McCormack, made this assurance
in response to a threat on Wednesday by 14 donors, including the
United States, to reduce their assistance to the Government unless
progress is made in resolving the crisis.
"If there is any discussion about some of our assistance
programmes in Kenya, it hasn’t begun yet," McCormack said at a
Press briefing in Washington. He added that the US is, in any
event, unlikely to make any cuts in the large portion of aid to
Kenya that is devoted to humanitarian programmes.
But in Europe, it is a different tone. Last week, the European
Union said it could cut its aid over disputed elections.
"It’s difficult to continue the same level of budgetary support,
if we see that the election had not been respected," EU
Development Commissioner Louis Michel told a meeting of the
European Parliament’s development committee.
"We are not in a situation we can call business as usual by any
means," Michel said. "We have to adapt our relations."
The EU provided 290 million euros in aid to Kenya between 2002 and
last year. A further 383 million euros were planned for this year,
through to 2013.
Government officials argue the country no longer depended on donor
support and has been self-reliant in the last five years,
financing up to 85 per cent of its budget from local tax
collections.
But disruption of businesses, closure of offices, and destruction
of property and displacement could undermine the country’s tax
collection base.
There are also fears some businesses could close shop leading to
unemployment and resentment.
The Government had planned to borrow from the capital markets.
Before the poll the Government had said it hoped to exploit its
favourable credit rating of B+ awarded by rating agency Standard
and Poor’s - to borrow money internationally.
The Economist’s Intelligence Unit predictions say that it will
almost certainly not be feasible in the first half of the year,
although foreign borrowing may be possible towards the end of 2008
"if there is a quick return to normality."
"The cost of borrowing abroad is likely to rise, the overvalued
Kenyan shilling will fall, tourism has already been badly hit and
foreign aid may be cut back. Planned privatisations will get
greater scrutiny; some may falter. There may not be enough money
to keep Kibaki’s promise of free secondary education. But breaking
it would sorely undermine him."
Hope for continued EU funding now hangs on the outcome of Annan’s
efforts.
A EU official was last week quoted saying that if Annan’s
mediation failed the European Union would consider tougher steps.
"We are working on an options paper, all the possible scenarios
are on the table, including the possibility of suspending aid, and
of sanctions," a news agency quoted an official saying.
The official said EU ambassadors are to begin working on those
options on Tuesday, when Annan arrives.
Michel, the EU Development Commissioner yesterday shuttled between
separate talks with Kibaki, Kalonzo and ODM. But last week he said
he had failed to make contact with Kibaki.
"I have attempted to contact him in vain for days. I get to his
front office, but I’m never transferred to the President – either
the line goes dead or he does not pick up the phone," he told the
lawmakers.
Kenya’s ambassador to Belgium, where the EU headquarters are based,
Mr Marx Kahende, told the same meeting that a negotiated solution
was possible.
"We remain optimistic that ongoing efforts, including the
engagement by Mr Kofi Annan ... will yield an acceptable solution,"
Kahende said. "Democracy can’t be built in a void ... Maybe Nato
forces are required, I don’t know," Reuters quoted the ambassador
saying.
Back in Kenya, Annan’s arrival is being awaited with a mixture of
relief and doubt. After the collapse of talks that were to be
spearheaded by Kufuor, Opposition leaders privately believe that
the peace talks present a road map to nowhere, although they are
willing to give them a chance.
Some go further and describe them as a plot by Kibaki, backed by
the United States, to help cool down emotions while business
continues as usual in Government.
Some observers say Annan’s mediation may have "a little more
weight" than Kufuor’s. But the leaders are not keen to postpone
their plans of action for the sake of Annan-led talks or any other
because they are convinced it won’t amount to much.
"A Head of State like Kufuor is restrained by several factors when
he approaches a fellow Head of State. Among the restraints is
diplomatic etiquette," a political activist told The Sunday
Standard.
"A Head of State cannot face another and tell him, ‘You stole the
elections". That is more so in Africa, where nothing is clear in
politics. Next time, it may be Kufuor seeking mediation from
President Kibaki. You can never tell in Africa. That’s why Kufuor
could only do so much," he added.
Annan, some Opposition leaders say, could have more leeway "to
tell Kibaki off" although others view his efforts as "part of the
strategy to buy time".
Casting even more suspicion is the entry of Uganda’s Yoweri
Museveni, who is also said to be keen to resolve the impasse.
With talk of Ugandan soldiers having crossed into Kenya to help
Kibaki stem the tide, some Opposition leaders say Museveni cannot
be an honest broker.
Others argue that Museveni "has no democratic credentials," having
come to power through the power of the gun, before manipulating
the constitution to hang onto power.
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