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EAC unable to intervene in
crisis
Published on January 20, 2008, 12:00 am
EA STANDARD
By Ernest Mpinganjira
Kenya’s neighbours are prodding its current political impasse with
a big stick. They are hesitant to be involved.
Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, Burundi’s Pierre Nkurunziza
and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, have not publicly acknowledged Kibaki’s
victory.
In a recent interview with the BBC, Kikwete summed the mood in the
region as humbling.
"It is they (Kenyans) fighting one another. They are best placed
to look for solutions to their own problems. We can only intervene
when our interests are at stake or if they ask for our assistance."
The remarks are silent diplomatic blow to Kenya. Simply put,
Kikwete and other leaders do not want to share in the
embarrassment of a suspect victory.
The international community is considering more drastic action.
The European Union parliament has recommended suspension of aid to
Kenya until the current political crisis is resolved. This
decision was reached on Thursday after days of deliberations in
Brussels and Belgium.
The US says it is reviewing its assistance to Kenya.
The current political deadlock over the disputed presidential
election results is threatening to plunge the country into a deep
economic crisis.
These rebukes are a major credibility setback for President Kibaki.
The world is watching Kibaki’s every move.
Thursday’s call by the EU parliament to member states to suspend
development aid to Kenya, capped a week during which police were
accused of killing protesters indiscriminately.
Human rights activists accuse the police of using live ammunition.
Reaction to imminent suspension of aid in Nairobi was quite
startling. Government spokesman, Dr Alfred Mutua, scoffed at the
threat, saying Kenya is a sovereign state and should not be
dictated to by development partners.
After all, he said, Kenya’s 95 per cent budget is financed with
domestic revenue. From Mutua and any other layman’s point of view,
the EU threat is utter nonsense.
It was with similar ‘gung-ho’ diplomacy’ that President Robert
Mugabe responded to Western countries when they cut economic links
with Zimbabwe.
Ever since, Zimbabwe, once one of the strongest economies on the
continent, has been in a free-fall – inflation. Its current
inflation rate is 4,000 per cent and it is still rising.
Kenya’s economy is service-industry based, and therefore quite
vulnerable to external factors. The tourism industry, which last
year fetched the exchequer Ksh61 billion, is already reeling under
the post-election despondency.
The Kenya Tourism Board has already raised the red flag following
massive cancellation of hotel bookings by nearly 50 per cent in
the first two weeks of this month, precipitating lay-offs.
The ‘Zimbabwe syndrome’ is damaging to key economic sectors.
Tourist-source countries have issued travel advisories warning
their citizens against non-essential trips to Kenya.
In just two weeks, there are reports that the sector has shed
20,000 direct jobs, and 120,000 indirect jobs would be affected if
the poll impasse is not resolved in a month.
The industry has lost Sh4 billion since the post-election violence
began on December 30. Investors in real estate estimate losses
amounting to over Sh100 billion.
The losses in the construction sector resulting from torched
property have not been worked out. The transport sector has also
taken a beating from the post-election violence. The losses are
projected to be monstrously high.
More shocks await the Government in the first quarter of this year.
Development partners have warned that it is not going to be ‘business-as-usual’.
Although they have not said openly, EU foreign ministers have
reportedly been considering advising their governments to ban
Kenyan ministers and senior Government officials from travelling
to Europe.
During EU foreign ministers parley in Malta last week, one of the
options – besides aid suspension – was to freeze bank accounts for
ministers and senior Government officials. This is what has
befallen senior officials in President Mugabe’s government.
In addition, Kenya’s ministers and senior government officials
would be barred to the United States, Japan and Canada.
The image of the government was further dented when the Human
Rights Watch (HRW) alleged on Thursday that most of the people who
died in the post-election violence were executed by the police.
The allegations of police brutality – at the behest of the
Government – have further cast doubts on the credibility of the
presidential poll outcome. Outgoing Commonwealth Secretary-General
Don Mackintosh said on Thursday the results did not measure up to
international standards.
According to an HRW official, Mr Ben Lawrence, preliminary
investigations show that most of those killed in the violence
especially in Rift Valley, Nairobi, Nyanza and Western Provinces
were executed by police.
Development partners are definitely going to cite reports on gross
human rights violations to determine continued support for the
Kibaki administration.
Isolated internationally, the Kenyan leader also risks being
perceived at home as the president of one province. His inability
to venture out of State House and engage the nation in discourse
has widened the distance between the presidency and the electorate.
Despite the atrocities being committed in many parts of the
country, Kibaki is ‘barricaded’ in State House, unable to face
Kenyans to stamp out current mayhem. This has reinforced the
perception in opposition ranks that "the guilty are afraid".
Initially, the United States, though its embassy in Nairobi,
hailed President Kibaki’s re-election. However, the Statement
Department retracted the congratulatory message when it emerged
that the tallying process was flawed.
Ever since, there has been a chain reaction that threatens to make
Kibaki a lame duck president.
The country’s isolation internationally had begun. At home, the
president could be an unwelcome guest in some parts of the country.
All politics is local, so it is said. However, the Kenya situation
is a little dicey, if unique. But, what happens in Nairobi is
likely to have far-reaching implications in East Africa.
We cannot call Kenya a failed state. But the ethnic tensions are
high.
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