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Why Uganda ignored reports on
Kenya’s post polls violence
By GRACE MATSIKO, NATION Correspondent in KAMPALA
19. Jan. 2008
NATION
The Ugandan leadership ignored intelligence reports that the
elections in Kenya would ignite violence and compromise Uganda’s
security for fear of harming relations with its eastern neighbour.
The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) had sought stringent
security and other strategic arrangements ahead of the December 27
elections.
That would mean substantially raising the alert level of the
security services and declaring Kenya’s elections as posing a
serious national security threat, a suggestion the political
leadership balked at.
Led by President Museveni, they refused to put Kenya on the list
of high security concerns arguing President Kibaki’s government
would think Kenya had been labelled “an enemy” of Uganda.
JIC is the country’s top security committee that gathers and
analyses intelligence and recommends action. It brings together
the heads of the internal and external security organisations,
military intelligence, the Police Counter-Terrorism Agency and the
Directorate of Criminal Investigations.
On January 15, the Daily Monitor reported that JIC warned of
likely violence in Kenya long before the disputed December 27
presidential election, but the warnings were brushed aside.
Events have since vindicated the intelligence community. The
post-election violence in Kenya has so far claimed more than 600
lives, while 250,000 people have been made homeless. Hundreds have
fled into exile, especially to Uganda.
Uganda has seen serious disruptions to its imports and exports
through the port of Mombasa, its main gateway to the sea, leading
to a massive fuel shortage.
Because the Uganda government declined to adopt the
recommendations of the intelligence agencies, it did not activate
its contingency measures, if any.
The co-ordinator of intelligence agencies, Gen David Tinyefuza,
said on Thursday, however, that the agencies never listed Kenya’s
polls as a threat to national security. “Why would Kenya be a
security threat?” he asked. “Instead it would be a flashpoint.”
But Internal Affairs minister Ruhakana Rugunda said the political
crisis in Kenya was “not a surprise” to Uganda because the
campaigns had been “contentious”.
Present stalemate
Said the minister: “President Museveni has spoken to President
Kibaki and the leader of the opposition Raila Odinga with a view
of solving the problem and the President has expressed his
willingness to play a positive role in solving the present
stalemate.”
Ironically, the present tensions in Kenya have since led to
suspicions of Uganda’s involvement. According to intelligence
officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Kenyan
government had initially judged the Ugandan leadership to be
unenthusiastic toward President Kibaki’s campaign for re-election.
His allies cited two examples. One that in October last year
Uganda “easily” allowed Mr Odinga to hold political meetings in
Kampala – which has a sizeable Kenyan population of professionals
and students – where he accused the Kibaki government of
corruption, ethnic bias, and non-responsiveness to high levels of
crime and unemployment.
It did not help that senior NRM officials and supporters, among
them Mr Mike Mukula, the party’s eastern region national
vice-chairman, former government MP Elly Karuhanga, and former
external security chief David Pulkol happily guided Mr Odinga
around.
The Kibaki team was also not happy with Kampala for allowing Mr
Jerry Okungu, an Odinga aide, to write a column in the state-owned
New Vision newspaper in which he quite openly rooted for his man.
According to our source, at the time the government gave the green
light to the New Vision to allow Mr Okungu to write the column, it
had no idea he was Mr Odinga’s man.
Mr Okungu consulted for the NRM publicity team during the
campaigns leading up to the 2006 General Election.
But Kampala told Mr Kibaki’s team Uganda believed in Freedom of
the Press given that opposition politicians such as Gulu L C-V
chair Norbert Mao writes a column in the same newspaper. In any
case, Kampala argued, President Museveni did not meet Mr Odinga
during his visit.
The Kenyan President’s camp seems to have been fully appeased
after Mr Museveni became the first leader to congratulate Mr
Kibaki.
For his efforts, it is now Mr Odinga’s party – ODM – that is
alleging that Ugandan troops have crossed the border to shore up
Mr Kibaki’s disputed victory. Uganda has denied sending troops.
Our source said that President Museveni had no choice but to
congratulate his Kenyan counterpart.
He needed Kenya to provide security for cargo, especially fuel. He
could not do that without recognising Mr Kibaki.
Reports that have thus far not been disputed say that President
Kibaki made a quiet visit to Uganda in the aftermath of the
election. Not to be left behind, Mr Odinga sent party
secretary-general, Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o.
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