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Kenya now listed among world's
most dangerous destinations
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Opposition
supporters hold rocks as they taunt police who fire tear gas
during riots in the Mathare slum of Nairobi on Thursday, Jan.
17, 2008. (AP / Karel Prinsloo) |
A look at the world's most
dangerous destinations
Updated Sat. Jan. 19 2008 7:15 AM ET
Rebecca Ruiz, Forbes.com
In the 1970s, a traveler's worst nightmare might have been a
hijacked plane or hostage crisis. Today, the threats are equally
perilous but reflect the changing times. Now, a tourist or
business traveler might worry more about terrorist attacks on mass
transit, getting caught in a spontaneous uprising or a bombing of
a nightclub or hotel.
That's what happened Monday when militants attacked a luxury hotel
in Kabul with grenades, AK-47 rifles and suicide vests, killing
six people, including at least one American. In Kenya, disputed
election results from late December led to weeks of widespread
rioting and ethnic violence, which caused an estimated 600 deaths.
"I don't think the world is more safe or more dangerous," says
Johan Selle, director of operations for iJet Intelligent Risk
Systems, a Maryland-based risk consultancy agency. "I think that
certain threats are more frequent now than they have been."
According to Selle, these include suicide bombings, kidnappings
and intellectual property theft.
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Classifying which nations are the most dangerous based on the
day's news can be somewhat deceiving. Of course, Iraq and
Afghanistan are exceptionally treacherous, but other countries
like Haiti, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have
remained as dangerous in the years since security conditions there
began deteriorating.
In order to compile our annual list of the World's Most Dangerous
Destinations, we conferred with two risk consultancies: iJet, and
the London-based Control Risks. Both companies have offices
worldwide and advise corporate, governmental and non-governmental
clients about security risks in various countries. Their clients
span industries to include pharmaceuticals, gas and oil, banks,
and telecommunications.
IJet determines safety levels by assessing six factors: crime,
security services, civil unrest, terrorism, kidnapping and
geopolitical stability. Each country is then given a one to five
ranking, with one as the lowest threat level and five as the
highest. Control Risks uses a five-tiered risk rating, which
determines whether security, terrorism or travel risks are
extreme, high, medium, low or insignificant. Our list includes
seven countries ranked as the most dangerous by iJet and Control
Risks as well as three countries ranked high by one of the
companies.
Destabilizing Forces
Though factors that lead to destabilization or downright societal
breakdown differ in each country, there are general trends that
both companies have noticed in recent years.
"There is a lack of strong government and economy," says Selle of
countries that have descended into chaos. "There's a lot of
concern over Kenya right now, but a lot of economic interests and
international interests are pushing to negotiate." Selle contrasts
Kenya with Zimbabwe, which is "anything but an economic powerhouse."
IJet has ranked Zimbabwe as a five, noting prolonged civil unrest,
a poor economy, financial risks for foreign companies and a
failing government. Control Risks has rated the country as having
a high security risk, insignificant terrorism risk and a medium
travel risk. The U.S. Department of State has deemed Zimbabwe
"volatile" and warns citizens that the government condones the use
of force against dissenters.
Though African nations comprise just under half of the most
dangerous countries on our list, James Smither, associate director
of consulting projects at Control Risks, says that security is
improving in some places across the continent.
"People are tiring of these conflicts," he says. "The number of
civil wars has come down in recent years." Smither attributes
improved security in some regions to the end of the Cold War,
which caused a proliferation of conflict through proxy wars. "When
that funding and interest in those conflicts ended, then those
wars faded out." He points to Mozambique and Sierra Leone as
examples of stabilization in recent years.
According to Smither, the key to stability is strong institutions
like an effective judiciary, independent media or engaged civil
society. Selle, at iJet, says that the race for resources like
diamonds, minerals, oil, and farming and grazing rights has
ignited many political and military firestorms in Africa, but also
in countries around the world.
The efforts of local or multinational companies to assuage the
concerns of residents by investing in infrastructure, jobs and
education can have a stabilizing effect.
"People tend to be more susceptible to [unrest] if they are poor
and they're thinking the next [leader] is going to come along and
bring them bread and water," he says. This is particularly true in
countries where changes in leadership occur because of economic
desperation.
Protecting Yourself
Regardless of where you travel, either on business or for leisure,
visitors to dangerous countries must be fully aware of the range
of threats.
In Venezuela, for example, crime has increased noticeably in
Caracas and other urban areas. While foreign companies have yet to
become the target of clashing pro- and anti-government forces,
violence has erupted quickly between the groups in the past.
In Haiti, there is corruption within the police force as well as
drug trafficking. The capital area of Port-au-Prince suffers from
incidents of random crime even in affluent suburbs.
"We definitely encourage [people] to learn about the country
they're going to," says Michele Bond, the Department of State's
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Overseas Citizens Services. "Things
can turn violent, and you wouldn't have any warning."
Such was the case in Kenya recently when a disputed election
resulted in the rioting and violence that killed an estimated 600
people. Bond says that there were about 9,000 Americans in Kenya
when the fighting broke out and that many of them contacted the
Department of State for advice about safety.
Bond's primary recommendation was to stay inside until the
violence ebbed. However, she also strongly urges travelers to
prepare before leaving by giving an itinerary to a family member,
registering the trip with the Department of State, which can
e-mail updates to travelers, reviewing insurance policies in case
of a medical emergency and checking the agency's frequently
updated list of travel advisories.
Preparedness is crucial, Bond says, since "something can happen to
you anywhere."
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