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ANALYSIS - Kenya's Kibaki sheds
gentleman image
Fri 18 Jan 2008, 8:13 GMT
By Andrew Cawthorne
NAIROBI, Jan 18 (Reuters) - When President Mwai Kibaki was
inaugurated on Dec. 30, 2002, a million Kenyans thronged a city
park to hail him as saviour after 24 years of repressive rule.
Five years later, he was hurriedly sworn in, watched by a few
close aides, on the lawn of his heavily guarded residence, as
smoke rose from protests in nearby slums.
The contrasting ceremonies mirror Kibaki's changed reputation both
inside and outside Kenya after his disputed re-election and tough
handling of the turmoil afterwards.
"Sorry for the cliches, but the popular 'reformist president' is
beginning to look a bit more like an old-fashioned African
strongman these days," one Nairobi-based diplomat said.
There was nationwide euphoria when Kibaki beat the party of
authoritarian former President Daniel arap Moi in 2002.
Though some Kenyans later became disillusioned over issues like
corruption, there was still respect for a man regarded as a
gentleman, statesman and "Mzee" -- Swahili for respected elder --
above the messy fray of daily politics.
Now, however, Kibaki has turned into a hate figure for many who
believe he stole the Dec. 27 presidential vote and is crushing
protests with brutality.
The man with a penchant for P.G. Wodehouse novels and a round of
golf at the colonial-era Muthaiga Club, who was previously often
satirised as a genial but bumbling leader, has shown unexpected
steel in facing the crisis.
After swearing himself in within minutes of being declared winner
from a hotly-contested vote count, Kibaki, 76, has gone on to
outlaw public demonstrations, put hardliners in his cabinet,
deploy riot police daily, and ban live TV broadcasts.
"We are seeing a creeping regression to the totalitarian methods
of the past," said Kenyan columnist Macharia Gaitho.
"The government is going out of its way to curb the inherent
rights of the people to associate, express themselves, communicate
and assemble."
Not so, cry Kibaki supporters, who say opposition leader Raila
Odinga is forcing the government to take tough action by whipping
up civil disobedience and ethnic massacres.
"NOT ZIMBABWE"
Diplomats are beginning to ask if Kibaki is following in the
footsteps of others -- like Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, or Yoweri
Museveni of Uganda -- whose authoritarianism cut short their early
status as favourites of the West.
Kibaki opened up the economy, which stagnated under Moi, to
achieve average annual growth of five percent, and ended many
restrictions on free expression. He was also seen as a reliable
Western ally against al Qaeda.
But question-marks that began emerging towards the end of his
first term, when, for example, police controversially raided a
newspaper office, are now seen as an early warning signal.
"He risks going down as the president who squandered the
opportunities of the post-Moi democratisation in Kenya, even
though he was the one who first enabled them," said Patrick Smith,
editor of Africa Confidential newsletter.
"The old stereotype of the genial but weak leader surrounded by
bad people does not fit any more. That image was gradually chipped
away. Then events since Dec. 30 finished the process."
Analysts point out, however, that Kibaki has still led from the
shadows during the crisis rather than become a dominant frontman
like, say, Meles or Museveni.
And U.S. ambassador Michael Ranneberger was adamant that
comparisons made by Kibaki's most strident critics with Zimbabwean
President Robert Mugabe were wrong.
"Kenya is nowhere near anything like Zimbabwe so such comparisons
are completely beyond the point," he said.
Still, there is a mounting chorus of criticism from Kenyan rights
groups and activists who say Kibaki staged a "civilian coup" and
is looking increasingly dictatorial.
"The decline into a police state has been so swift and so
organised that one can be forgiven for thinking that some within
the government may have actually anticipated the chaos," said
lawyer Karim Anjarwalla in Nairobi.
Kibaki faces early tests of his international standing.
First, he is due at an African Union (AU) summit at the end of
January, where it is not clear how fellow heads-of-state will
treat him. Uganda, Swaziland, Morocco, Somalia and Egypt are the
only African nations to recognise Kibaki so far.
Then there are threats in the air by Western powers to cut direct
aid. But as Kenya gets less than five percent of its budget that
way, the impact would be largely symbolic.
Some who know Kenya well say that rather than a dramatic
transformation in the last three weeks, Kibaki is in fact only
showing qualities he has hidden for decades.
As a legislator in every parliament since 1963 independence,
Kibaki has exhibited plenty of political guile and strength during
a career that includes a decade as vice-president for Moi -- the
man with whom he was seen as representing a clean break.
And while he belatedly benefited from the advent of multi-party
politics in the 1990s, critics remember his comments in previous
years likening those seeking to end one-party rule to daydreamers
trying to fell a tree with a razor blade.
(Editing by Barry Moody)
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